
Gregory J. Heym
Executive Vice President, Chief Economist
(212) 546-1069

By DAVID B. CARUSO
Associated Press Writer
September 27, 2005, 1:07 PM EDT
NEW
YORK -- Everything about Frank Fazio's new two-bedroom apartment on
Manhattan's Upper West Side is decidedly average, including its price:
a hair under $1 million.
With five rooms and about 1,050
square feet of space, the place is a nice size, by New York standards,
but it is no mansion. There are no chandeliers, no soaring cathedral
ceilings and no doorman downstairs to help with groceries.
"There
is nothing that would make you say, 'Wow this place must have cost a
million bucks," said Fazio, 42, a banker who relocated from Chicago.
Yet pay a million he did, something more New Yorkers _ and more Americans _ are doing these days.
For
the first time, there are more than 1 million owner-occupied homes in
the United States worth $1 million or more, according to a Census
Bureau survey published late last month.
Once a symbol of
unusual wealth, million-dollar dwellings now seem like a dime a dozen
in some places. San Francisco alone has more than 20,000 of them. There
are another 46,000, or so, in Orange County, Calif.
But the
king of outrageous housing prices continues to be Manhattan, where even
someone with a million dollars in their pocket can't buy luxury.
The
average price for an apartment in all but Harlem and the borough's
northern tip climbed above $1.2 million in the second quarter of 2005,
said Gregory Heym, chief economist for Terra Holdings, an owner of real estate brokerages in the city.
"For a million dollars, you couldn't get a two-bedroom on the East Side," Heym said.
Real
estate has become so hot that the boom has spread to neighborhoods
formerly written off by many investors as hopelessly impoverished.
In
Bedford Stuyvesant, the section of Brooklyn that was the setting for
Spike Lee's 1989 film, "Do the Right Thing," some owners were asking
more than $950,000 this week for their brownstones.
The
prospect that a neighborhood that experienced rioting in the 1960s and
a crack epidemic in the late 1980s would fetch such high prices now is
both an urban success story, and potentially dismaying, said Richard
Weeks, an agent at Coldwell Banker Mid Plaza Real Estate.
If a working-class family can't afford a home in Bed Stuyvesant, he asked, just where can they buy?
"As
an African American, I worry about it," said Weeks, whose listings
include a limestone town house in a fast-gentrifying section of the
neighborhood, priced at $975,000. "It is definitely going to become
harder for the people who aren't well off to purchase there."
Nationwide, the surge in high-end prices has happened quickly.
The
Census Bureau's 2004 American Community Survey found 1,034,386 homes
worth at least $1 million in 2004, compared to 595,441 in 2002 and only
394,878 in 2000.
Even in land-rich cities like Phoenix, the demand for housing in mature neighborhoods has outstripped supply.
In
a few exclusive communities, $1 million won't buy you more than "an
acre of dirt," said Kristy Ryan, a broker at Re/Max Fine Properties in
Scottsdale.
In other parts of town, $1 million is still enough
to build a 4,000-square-foot villa with a pool and a three-car garage,
but Ryan noted that the same house might have sold for $700,000 just
five years ago.
"Some people are disappointed when they get
here," she said of the northerners who continue to arrive in droves.
"They don't realize how much it has appreciated in the last few years."
The surge in the number of homes breaking the $1 million mark
is a natural product of an increase in sales prices across the board,
said John M. Clapp, a professor of finance and real estate at the
University of Connecticut.
Demand for housing is still
outstripping supply in many U.S. markets, he said. Low interest rates
have made it easier for people to afford more house, as have some new
financing methods, like interest-only adjustable mortgages, which
initially allow buyers to lower their monthly payments.
The
losers in this hot market, Clapp said, are people buying a home for the
first time. At current interest rates, the monthly payment on an
$800,000 mortgage is about $4,700 a month. The financial hit is
especially bad in places like New York, where the city's many
condominiums and co-ops require monthly maintenance fees that often
exceed $1,000 a month.
"I think they are stretched to the limit at this point," Clapp said. "In some markets, renting makes more sense."
If
prices stop rising, other potential losers could be speculative
investors who were counting on a quick resale of a home at a profit to
pay back debt. Economists have split over whether the rise in housing
prices constitutes a bubble that could burst at any time.
Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has warned that housing prices in some
markets have been driven to "unsustainable levels," but also said
Monday that homeowners on average have enough equity to absorb the hit
if values drop.
"In the long run, things have to come back into equilibrium," Clapp said.
Tuesday, September 27, 2005