Halstead Property

Housing Market Ticks Upward

By Joan Lownds

Glimmers of hope in last year's housing market report gave Wilton Realtors some modicum of optimism, in an informal survey. "I can say that our office phones are ringing and there are buyers out there now that are actively looking at properties during a period that is traditionally very quiet," said Realtor Theresa Blinder of Wilton's Raveis Real Estate agency at 44 Old Ridgefield Road. "That gives me reason for cautious optimism."

The sense of encouragement is based on "improvement on several parameters in 2011," according to Ms. Blinder. Specifically, "the number of single-family homes that sold in Wilton in 2011 was up more than 7% from the previous year, and that very positively contrasts with a 6-7% decline in the number of home sales in Fairfield County and the state in general," she said.

Along with the uptick in home sales the number of "high-end sales" also increased, with "22 high-end homes (over $1.5 million in price) sold in 2011, up from 17 in 2010," Ms. Blinder said. "It's also interesting to note the highest sale in 2010 was at $1.9 million but this past year we saw eight homes sell over that 2010 threshold, including one that sold for $4 million."

However, the lingering effects of the recession still pose challenges. "That's an encouraging performance, but I don't want to sugarcoat the fact that we remain in an extremely challenging real estate market," Ms. Blinder said. "Inventory is up and we have over a one-year supply of homes for sale. While the mix of high-end homes sold is bringing our average and median sale price up year over year, we can't ignore the fact that the average sale price per square foot of our properties is down — only down 2.6% from 2010 but that's about 20% down from 2006."

Eric Weitz, manager of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage at 77 Old Ridgefield Road, said the exact number of homes sold in Wilton increased from 164 in 2010 to 177 last year, coupled with an 8% increase in average sale price.

This represents a significant decrease from "the absolute peak of the market in terms of units in 2005, when 333 homes were sold in Wilton," he said. "But, certainly, with the increase of both units and average selling price in 2011 it appears the market is trending in the right direction."

Basically, Mr. Weitz said, "We do feel that we have come off a bottom and are headed for at least some moderate growth. Mortgage rates continue at historic lows and in spite of the discussion about how difficult it is to actually get home financing, qualified buyers are getting mortgages."

Although Realtor Karin Venditti of Realty Seven Inc. at 250 Danbury Road said one area of concern was a slight increase "in days on the market, to 117 last year, up from 113 days in 2010," she, too, sounded a positive note. "We are optimistic that 2012 will see positive improvement in average sale price and number of units sold, as well as positive improvement in the market in general," she said.

Ms. Venditti also said the number of listings sold has rebounded from 136 in 2009, to 164 in 2010, and 177 in 2011. Although the average sale price was $915,137 in 2009, and dipped to $877,566 in 2010, it rose to $959,980 last year. The median sale price increased from $756,250 in 2009 to $775,000 in 2010 and $825,000 last year.

Bulletin real estate columnist Julie Carney, also of Raveis, described the local housing market in 2011 as similar to "the current GOP race: a little all over the place."

Ms. Carney acknowledged the "good news" of the unit sales increase to 177, the rise in the median sale price, and "the list-to-sales-price ratio remaining steady at 94%." However, Ms. Carney said "inventory continued to rise by more than 10%, pushing the months of supply increase to 14," and she also cited the increase in market time and average price per square foot.

Wilton fared better than some of its neighboring towns in 2011, according to Ms. Carney. "Ridgefield had a much tougher year," she said. "Sales were down 12% to 239, and median sale price was down almost 7% to $668,000. Their inventory was also down about 5%, and their months of supply down almost 12%, to 11.5, with their price per square foot was down very slightly from $235 to $233."

New Canaan "saw one more sale this year than last, at 193, but the median sale price grew 9% to $1,585,000," Ms. Carney said. "Their inventory dropped 5% to 243, with their months of supply decreasing by 21% and their price per square foot growing by 5.8% to a whopping $423."

"To really make things weird, Norwalk saw a 12% drop in sales, to 444, with a 5% drop in median sale price to $417,355," Ms. Carney said. "But the interesting thing is their average list price was $742,810 against an average sale price of $570,818 — meaning they have a cartful of overpriced listings that didn't sell, or possibly a smattering of very high-end listings that didn't sell. However, the average price per square foot was up 3% to $276, or 5% higher than the price in Wilton."

According to Ms. Carney, the bottom line is that "The market is still correcting to a more stable place, but strong sales and pricing in both New York City and the summer communities of Long Island bode well for the affluent communities of Connecticut," she said. "Continued foreclosures and short sales are possible, but will remain a minority of sales and although will affect pricing to an extent, will not drive it. The spring market should kick into high gear around Feb. 1, and I think we'll see a lot of activity with shorter market times as pricing becomes more stable and buyers slowly come into a little more confidence."

Robyn Kammerer, executive director of communications at Halstead Property, which has an office at 21 River Road, said her company's report for fourth-quarter single-family homes sales in 2011 further showed that neighboring towns struggled slightly more than Wilton.

In Darien, "a decline in high-end closings brought the average price 5% lower over the past year to $1,768,771. The median price, which measures the middle of the market, rose 12% during this time to $1,497,500. Homes spent an average of 127 days on the market, 8% less time than a year ago."

In Westport, a $20-million closing helped inflate the average price in Westport during the fourth quarter of 2010, bringing it to $1,694,370.

Without any similar closings (in 2011), the average price fell 25% to $1,269,923. The median price posted a smaller decline, falling 12% to $1,040,000. The 58 closings in Westport during the fourth quarter represent a 21% decline from a year ago."

Realtor Dagny Eason of dagnysrealestate.com, described 2011 as "a really good year for Wilton's housing market — until the storms of last fall ... Real estate sales slowed down to a trickle during this time. Folks just could not get out to look, or could not get into a home to look."

By contrast, the new year "has started off very active and busy at an early time," Ms. Eason said. "Perhaps the good weather had folks looking more. Perhaps the housing climate is better, since the economy is no longer declining."

Realtor Marion Filley, The Bulletin's other real estate columnist, saw positive news in the housing reports, but also highlighted the questions that remain.

"Wilton's news is a little more positive than many of the surrounding towns'," she said. "It looks like the market has made adjustments into positive territory. The big question is whether these will be sustainable in 2012. I feel there will be more activity in the first six months of the year but going into the fall, with the election, the activity will slow down. The market does not like uncertainty.

Saturday, January 28, 2012